Quantitative Technique and Decision Making Assignment: Tabung Haji Hajj Case Study 2026

Quantitative Technique and Decision Making Assignment: Tabung Haji 2027 Hajj Season Case Study

This Masters-level assignment applies core quantitative decision-making tools to Lembaga Tabung Haji as it prepares 31,600 Malaysian pilgrims for the 2027 Hajj season. Students use the case to explain how probability handles cost and operational uncertainty, how PERT/CPM and PERT/Cost keep Hajj preparations on schedule, how break-even and cost-benefit analysis inform the HAFIS subsidy, and how ROI and marginal analysis guide extra spending on flights, hotels and services.

Case Study: Tabung Haji

Lembaga Tabung Haji (TH) is preparing for the 1448H/2027 Hajj season, with Malaysia receiving an official quota of 31,600 pilgrims. TH has kept the Hajj cost for Muassasah pilgrims at RM33,300 per person for the fourth consecutive year, despite inflation, global economic uncertainty, rising oil prices, higher supply costs and increasing service costs in Saudi Arabia.

To support eligible pilgrims, TH continues to provide targeted Hajj financial assistance (HAFIS), with approximately RM234 million allocated for the 2027 season. B40 pilgrims pay RM15,000, M40 pilgrims pay RM23,500 and T20 pilgrims pay the full Hajj cost of RM33,300. Since HAFIS was introduced in 2001, TH has provided more than RM2.8 billion in financial assistance.

Almost 90% of the total Hajj cost is associated with accommodation, flights and services in Saudi Arabia. To manage these costs, TH uses early planning, strategic negotiations, long-term contracts and risk management, such as five-year contracts with airline service providers and direct negotiations with hotels for better accommodation rates.

Before each season TH must also issue offer letters, verify pilgrims’ eligibility and health requirements, run Hajj preparation courses at more than 200 mosques nationwide, arrange flights and accommodation, coordinate service providers and complete operational preparations on time. TH therefore has to balance affordability, operational efficiency, service quality and long-term financial sustainability.

Source: adapted from The Edge Malaysia (2026), “Tabung Haji: Haj offer letters for 31,600 prospective pilgrims to be issued from Sept 21.”

Instructions

1. Answer ALL questions based on the Tabung Haji case study.
2. Support your answers with relevant information from the case and appropriate quantitative analysis concepts.

Question 1: Probability Concepts and Applications (25 marks)

Tabung Haji operates in an environment affected by uncertainties such as inflation, oil prices, service costs, flight costs and operational requirements.

1. Identify three uncertainties from the case and explain how probability concepts can assist Tabung Haji in assessing and managing these uncertainties. (9 marks)
2. Differentiate between discrete and continuous probability distributions. Using the case, provide one appropriate example of a variable for each type of distribution and justify your answer. (8 marks)
3. Explain how probability analysis can assist Tabung Haji in improving forecasting and resource allocation for future Hajj operations. (8 marks)

Question 2: Project Management, PERT/CPM and PERT/Cost (25 marks)

Tabung Haji must coordinate several activities before the Hajj season, including issuing offer letters, verifying pilgrims’ requirements, conducting preparation courses, and arranging flights and accommodation.

1. Based on the case, identify six major activities involved in Hajj preparation and arrange them in an appropriate sequence. (6 marks)
2. Explain how PERT/CPM can be applied to identify the critical path and assist Tabung Haji in completing its Hajj preparations within the required timeframe. (10 marks)
3. If one of the critical activities is expected to be delayed, explain how PERT/Cost can assist Tabung Haji in shortening the project duration while controlling additional costs. (9 marks)

Question 3: Break-Even Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis (25 marks)

The Hajj cost is RM33,300 per pilgrim, while eligible B40 and M40 pilgrims receive financial assistance through HAFIS. Approximately RM234 million has been allocated for targeted Hajj financial assistance.

1. Explain how break-even analysis can assist Tabung Haji in evaluating the relationship between the cost of Hajj operations, the number of pilgrims served and the amount collected from pilgrims. (8 marks)
2. Using cost-benefit analysis, identify and explain three costs and three benefits associated with providing HAFIS to eligible pilgrims. (9 marks)
3. Explain how the findings from break-even and cost-benefit analyses could assist Tabung Haji in making decisions regarding future Hajj costs and financial assistance. (8 marks)

Question 4: Return on Investment and Marginal Analysis (25 marks)

Almost 90% of Hajj costs are associated with accommodation, flights and services in Saudi Arabia. Tabung Haji uses strategies such as long-term flight contracts, hotel negotiations and early planning to manage these costs.

1. Explain how Return on Investment (ROI) can be used to evaluate an operational improvement undertaken by Tabung Haji. Provide one relevant example from the case. (8 marks)
2. Apply marginal analysis to explain how Tabung Haji could decide whether additional expenditure on accommodation, flights or Hajj services is worthwhile. (8 marks)
3. Evaluate why Tabung Haji should consider both financial and non-financial benefits when making decisions about additional investment in Hajj operations. Support your answer with examples from the case. (9 marks)

Marking Rubric (Summary)